The crypto market remains in the green with major gains over the past weeks. The general sentiment in the market is shifting as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top 10 altcoins regain previously lost territory.
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The chances of an extended bullish momentum seem to be increasing as the macro-economic factors impacting risk-on assets mitigate in short timeframes. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun a period of no contact with the media, and dollar inflation seems bound to decline.
This metric as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at a 40-year high and will take a dive in its July print according to data provided by the Bank of America. The banking institution surveyed the market and determined investors “really expect inflation to drop” over the next two years.
In addition, as stated by economist Alex Krüger, U.S. equities indices are trending to the upside with “remarkably strong” technical. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 have broken out of long ascending triangles which suggests a reclaimed of previous highs.
The Nasdaq 100 is currently trading at 12,343 with important gains since the start of July. Krüger believes this Index could return to its April 2022 levels which would represent an important bullish trend. The economist said via Twitter:
Given the absence of Fed surprises until September’s FOMC (expect July to be a non-event) and assuming no major negative developments on the European front, a summer rally taking prices there makes sense to me.
These three factors, absent Fed, a potential decline in inflation, and U.S. equity rallying, are the best-case scenario in the current macro-economic conditions. The crypto market has been showing a high correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and could benefit from a summer rally.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies are already breaking above critical resistance levels. ETH’s price leads the market recovery with a 50% profit in the past week and BTC’s price follows with a 23% profit.
What Could Get In The Way Of A Crypto Summer Rally?
According to Krüger, U.S. equities need to remain in the green during this earnings season. Stock indices have been reacting well to earnings reports from Netflix, but Tesla and Apple’s reports could truly define this period as a win or a retrace for the crypto market.
If BTC and ETH’s price can extend their current bullish trend, the next major obstacle might come from the Fed and their September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Krüger added:
After next week and before September’s FOMC (Sep/22) the main things to watch will be CPI inflation data, UMich inflation expectations and payrolls, with the key event being September’s CPI (Sept/13). Mark the calendars with those two dates.